[Risk Management] Prologue - UR E26 and the Three-Body Problem
UR E26 and the Three-Body Problem
"Two bodies can be predicted; three cannot." — Reading the relationship between Owner, Class, and Shipyard through celestial mechanics
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Celestial mechanics holds one problem that has never been cleanly solved: the Three-Body Problem. The orbit of two bodies circling each other under mutual gravity resolves to a single formula. But the moment a third body enters, everything changes. And this is precisely the dynamic that the Owner, the Class society, and the Shipyard create within a UR E26 compliance project.
Ⅰ. The Three Bodies
The orbit of two bodies circling each other under mutual gravity resolves to a single formula. You can calculate where they will be a thousand years from now. But the moment a third body enters, everything changes. Once the three begin pulling on one another at the same time, no general solution exists that resolves their motion in one stroke. Poincaré proved this at the end of the 19th century. Let the initial conditions be off by the width of a single hair, and the orbits diverge to an entirely different place. The system is plainly deterministic, yet in practice it is unpredictable.
Within a project there are three large bodies: the Owner, the Class society, and the Shipyard. Each traces its own orbit. That orbit is made of three things — mass (influence), schedule (when it moves), and direction (what it moves toward).
- The Owner orbits toward the delivery date and operating revenue. UR E26 is both a cost to be borne and an asset that reduces future operational risk. As the ultimate orderer and the owner of the asset, it holds the heaviest mass — yet often brings that weight to bear too late.
- The Class society orbits toward regulatory compliance and the consistency of its own interpretations. In grey areas it leans conservative. With the veto power of approval, it is the mass that — however small it may appear — can bring the entire system to a halt.
- The Shipyard orbits toward the build process and its margins. Cyber requirements are just one of countless work items — and the later they arrive, the more expensive they become. It holds the mass of execution: the build schedule and its costs.
The three bodies differ in mass, in orbit, and in direction. So they could never circle the same center. And it is from here that the three-body problem begins.
Ⅱ. Why "a Single Plan" Is Never the End
With only two bodies, management is easy. The Owner and the Shipyard agree on a schedule, and that's that. But the moment the third — the Class society — shifts its interpretation even once, the orbits of the other two are thrown off entirely.
This is why the schedule of a compliance project, more often than not, ends up needing periodic revision. It is not because anyone is doing their job poorly. It is simply the nature of a system in which three bodies pull on one another.
Ⅲ. How the Three-Body Problem Is "Managed"
What's interesting is that astronomers never gave up on the three-body problem. Knowing full well there is no general solution, they still place satellites into precise orbits.
There is only one method — not a single formula, but ceaseless recalculation. They observe the current position, numerically predict the next short interval, and correct the instant it drifts. Stability does not arrive on its own, so they manufacture it. They find the special points where the three bodies momentarily reach balance (like the Lagrange points) and seize that narrow window.
This is exactly what project Risk Management (RM) does.
RM is not a fourth power that aligns the three bodies by command. No such power exists to begin with. RM is the one who reads the dynamics of the system. It sees in advance where the three orbits will collide, corrects small deviations before they diverge, and finds the narrow window of alignment where the three schedules briefly overlap — then pushes the critical decisions into it. Holding the established plan together matters, too. But the most important thing for the success of a UR E26 project is likely the act of quickly recognizing the differences in perception among the Owner, the Class society, and the Shipyard, and continuously monitoring and adjusting the project's direction.
Key Takeaways
Owner, Class, and Shipyard are independent actors, each with different influence, schedule, and direction
The standard is not a body but the law of gravity — what moves is the Class society's interpretation, and that gap is the grey zone
A single change in the Class society's interpretation shakes the entire project schedule in a chain reaction
Not command but ceaseless recalculation and correction — finding the narrow window where the three schedules overlap and pushing the critical decisions into it
Core Insights:
A specialist in shipboard cybersecurity and compliance across the entire ship design and build lifecycle. Centered on cybersecurity architecture, governance, and regulatory compliance, he covers cyber policy and international relations guidelines for the shipbuilding and maritime sectors.
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